China Energy >> Policy & Analysis >> Carbon Scenarios

Carbon Scenarios

Beginning in 1999, the Energy Foundation and the Shell Foundation supported LBNL to collaborate with the Energy Research Institute (Beijing) on 20-year scenarios of energy use and carbon emissions. In conjunction with this study, LBNL staff:

Provided technical support for the development of the 10th Five-Year Energy Conservation Plan
Coordinated with government departments and sectoral research institutes
Completed energy conservation potential analyses for all the energy utilization sectors
Developed and refined the model and database
Implemented scenarios and revised results

The model developed under this project is continuously being updated further developed for ongoing decision support to national energy planners

Scenario Analysis Results Reveal Potential for Limiting Energy Growth

This study illustrated how the fuel structure of primary energy consumption in China could be quite different in 2020, and growth could be restricted, through:

Greater progress in efficiency
Restructuring of economy, energy using activities
More natural gas, nuclear, renewables
Strong push for more-sustainable practices
Quadruple GDP while doubling energy and carbon emissions

This image illustrates the output of the three scenarios run using the LEAP model for the China carbon scenarios project: ordinary effort,
promoting sustainability, and green growth. Differences between the green growth and the ordinary effort scenario include greater progress in efficiency; restructuring of economy and energy-using activities; an increased use of natural gas, nuclear and renewables; a strong push for more sustainable practices; and a quadrupling of GDP with only a doubling of energy, raising carbon emissions by half.

A summary report on the carbon scenarios project is available here.

Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Energy Analysis Department