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Past Energy Trends
Analysis of Past Energy Trends
Defying expectations, China's energy production and use fell in the late 1990s, only to exhibit growth faster than GDP after 2000.
Complex Causes behind Changes
The reported fall in China's coal use and energy intensity was very significant, but the underlying data have been challenged. Much of the uncertainty focuses on coal production data; coal consumption data are of much higher quality.
Driving factors behind decline include:
- Closure of inefficient plants, behavior changes reforms
- Slowing economic growth
- Fuel switching, improved energy efficiency and subsequent rise:
- High economic growth driven by infrastructure investment
- Pulling along demand for heavy industrial products
- Role of transport and homes less important, but will grow
- Further work
- Critical appraisal of data
- Detailed investigation of sectors and regions
Recent publications include Comments on Recent Energy Statistics from China by Jonathan Sinton and David Fridley, and Working out the Kinks: Understanding the Fall and Rise of Energy Use in China by David Fridley, Jonathan Sinton, and Joanna Lewis.