A novel numerical model for investigating macro factors influencing building energy consumption intensity

TitleA novel numerical model for investigating macro factors influencing building energy consumption intensity
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2020
AuthorsChangqing Lin, Yafeng Gao, Jinxin Huang, Dachuan Shi, Wei Feng, Qiaoyue Liu, Xiuyuan Du
JournalSustainable Production and Consumption
Volume24
Pagination308 - 323
Date PublishedJan-10-2020
ISSN23525509
Keywordsbuilding energy use, EM-STIRPAT model, Entropy weight method, SEM model
Abstract

Building energy use accounts for 40% of the primary energy consumed worldwide. Therefore, it is essential to explore the key influencing factors and the associated interactions among these factors in order to achieve energy-saving goals. In practical scenarios, the sample size is always limited; thus, conventional models are unable to analyze the interactions among factors, or their results are unstable. To resolve this issue, this paper proposes a method that combines the improved stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (EM-STIRPAT) model and a structural equation modeling (SEM) model using the entropy weight method. The results obtained by analyzing the building energy use in Beijing, which was considered as a case study, indicate that economic level, technical level, industry structure, and education structure have a significant positive impact on building energy consumption intensity (BECI). Based on this analysis, it was found that 94% of the technical level and 39% of the economic level indirectly affect BECI through the energy structure. In addition, through a scenario analysis, it was found that future changes in the age structure of the population will have a smaller impact on BECI than changes in the education structure. Finally, based on the results of this study, policymaking recommendations to reduce building energy consumption are also presented.

DOI10.1016/j.spc.2020.07.014
Short TitleSustainable Production and Consumption