Long-term Energy Modeling

Building on the China Energy Group's long-term experience working with Chinese collaborators and our understanding of Chinese data, we have developed and continually refined our detailed, bottom-up China Energy End-Use Model to evaluate potential future low-emission pathways for China. We initiated the development of this model in 2005 in response to growing a Chinese government policy focus on energy efficiency and the need for a tool capable of modeling and evaluating energy efficiency policies, programs, and targets such as those set out in the recent 11th and 12th Five-Year Plans. Using this model, the China Energy Group has undertaken various projects and studies to perform detailed energy and emissions analyses at national, sectoral and technology levels, to conduct retrospective and prospective sectoral and cross-cutting policy impact evaluation, to evaluate demand and supply options, and to develop medium- and long-term outlooks for low-emissions pathways.

The Group’s efforts in assessing future low-emissions pathways have focused on modeling China’s future energy demand and energy-related emissions, particularly as linked to both economic and physical drivers. In this area, we have used the model to characterize past and future Chinese energy consumption, evaluate the energy and emissions impact of specific policies in the buildings, industrial, and transport sectors, analyze the environmental impacts of CO2 and SO2 co-controls, and perform policy and technical efficiency scenario analysis. We have also developed comprehensive medium- and long-term energy and emissions outlooks to 2030 and 2050 for China. Another area of focus has been the assessment of conventional, non-fossil, and non-conventional supply options for China and their potential contributions to future low-emissions pathways. The China Energy Group is currently working jointly with China’s Energy Research Institute, the Rocky Mountain Institute, and the Energy Foundation to build a new model to evaluate the maximum energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction available both in terms of technology and policy in China in 2050 as a key element of the Reinventing Fire: China project.

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Tools

Green Resources & Energy Analysis Tool (GREAT)

The Green Resources & Energy Analysis Tool (GREAT) for Cities helps local governments to explore and identify potential energy and emission reduction opportunities and to create action plans for low carbon development. GREAT is an integrated bottom-up, energy end-use based modeling and accounting tool for tracking energy consumption, production and resource extraction in all economic sectors on a city, provincial or regional level. The model uses the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software developed by the Stockholm Environmental Institute and includes a national average dataset on energy input parameters for residential, commercial, transport, industry and agriculture end-use sectors. The model also includes a separate energy transformation module with specific power sector parameters such as installed generation capacity. Users such as energy policy analysts and researchers can customize the model to a given city or region by entering detailed actual and/or projected end-use stock, energy intensity and fuel share data points (where available) for technologies within each sector. The user-friendly interface then allow users to assess current and future key energy and carbon emissions drivers in detail from the perspectives of economic sectors, end-use technologies and fuels. GREAT helps local governments to complete the following goals/milestones: develop the city's GHG inventory; generate a future energy and emission projection baseline; generate scenarios; evaluate the impact of different policies; help to set target and develop action plans; and allocate targets.