The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China

TitleThe Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China
Publication TypeReport
Year of Publication2007
AuthorsNan Zhou, Jiang Lin
Date Published08/2007
InstitutionLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Keywordsbuildings, China, China Energy, China Energy Group, commercial building, energy analysis and environmental impacts department, energy consumption, modeling

While China's 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energyconsumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate theimpact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy efficiency improvement on energyconsumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model.

China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use. This is a particularlypertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experienceof working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of thecurrent energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipmentefficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes onbuilding energy use.

The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated byabout 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset thestrong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularlyelectricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to awide range of floor area growth trajectories , and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercialbuildings.